The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2023
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Elsevier
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study simulates the impact of the change in trade policy between the US and China on the trade volume and economic prosperity of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To do that, we employ a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) with different scenarios focusing on increases in tariffs. The results show that the tariff increases negatively affect the US and China in terms of trade volume and economic growth, while it leads to trade diversion and creation for the SSA. This offers valuable opportunities in improving exports and economic growth, particularly for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. On the sectorial level, the findings imply that agriculture, food, and oil and gas sectors are positively affected in terms of export volume, while mineral, metal and service sectors are negatively impacted by the trade war.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
CGE, GTAP, Sub-Saharan Africa, Trade Policy, Trade War
Kaynak
Journal of Policy Modeling
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
Sayı
Künye
Nantembelele, F. A., Yılmaz, M. K. ve Arı, A. (2023). The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference. Journal of Policy Modeling, 1-15. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.002
