Khan, Asad ul Islam
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Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
İktisat Bölümü, başta Türkiye ve çevre ülkeler olmak üzere küresel ekonomileri anlayan, var olan sorunları analiz ederken, iktisadi kuramları ve kavramları yetkin ve özgün bir şekilde kullanma becerisine sahip bireyler yetiştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
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Khan
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Solunum Sistemi, Genel ve Dahili Tıp, Çevre Bilimleri ve Ekoloji, İş Ekonomisi, Bilim ve Teknoloji
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Yayın Asymmetric effects of economic growth, fossil fuel consumption, and financial development on carbon emissions in Ghana(Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, 2024) Abdul Rahman, Mutawakil; Iftikhar, Sundas; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis research analyzes the impact of economic expansion, non-renewable energy consumption (NonREC), financial sector improvement, and carbon releases in Ghana. The study used yearly data from 1971 to 2014 and applied the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method to examine the data. The NARDL approach facilitated the differentiation of variables into favorable and unfavorable adjustments by examining the short-and long-run effects. The results indicated that all the independent variables exhibited short-term asymmetries, while economic growth presented long-term asymmetry. Negative adjustments in economic expansion led to a decline in carbon releases in the long run but an increase in the short run. favorable and unfavorable adjustments in NonREC positively and negatively impact carbon releases in both the short and long term. Additionally, negative adjustments in financial development positively affected carbon releases in the long run. The cumulative dynamic multipliers graphs and impulse response function graphs illustrate the same impact pattern of the independent variables on carbon releases, confirming the findings' robustness. The study suggests implementing environmental policies in Ghana that promote renewable sources of energy and energy-conserving innovations to reduce environmental degradation. The findings recommend that the decision-maker prioritize effective environmental strategies like a green economy, renewable energy use, and energy-saving technologies. By adopting clean energy and implementing advanced technologies, sustainable economic growth can be achieved while preserving the environment and the ecosystem.Yayın A comparative assessment of frequentist forecasting models: Evidence from the S&P 500 pharmaceuticals index(İstanbul University Press, 2023) Muneza, Christian; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Badshah, Waqar; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis paper compares three forecasting methods, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and neural network autoregression (NNAR) methods, using the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals Index. The objective is to identify the most accurate model based on the mean average forecasting error (MAFE). The results consistently show the NNAR model to outperform ARIMA and GARCH and to exhibit a significantly lower MAFE. The existing literature presents conflicting findings on forecasting model accuracy for stock indexes. While studies have explored various models, no universally applicable model exists. Therefore, a comparative analysis is crucial. The methodology includes data collection and cleaning, exploratory analysis, and model building. The daily closing prices of pharmaceutical stocks from the S&P 500 serve as the dataset. The exploratory analysis reveals an upward trend and increasing heteroscedasticity in the pharmaceuticals index, with the unit root tests confirming non-stationarity. To address this, the dataset has been transformed into stationary returns using logarithmic and differencing techniques. Model building involves splitting the dataset into training and test sets. The training set determines the best-fit models for each method. The models are then compared using MAFE on the test set, with the model possessing the lowest MAFE being considered the best. The findings provide insights into model accuracy for pharmaceutical industry indexes, aiding investor predictions, with the comparative analysis emphasizing tailored forecasting models for specific indexes and datasets.Yayın Till debt does us apart: Cross-country evidence on the relationship between microfinance prevalence and social distrust(Public Library Science, 2023) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özcan, Rasim; Masood, Syed Muhammad Usman; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüEconomic interventions have social consequences. In this paper, we explore one such relationship, between microfinance intensity and social distrust levels reported by the low-income people. We find a significant association between microfinance intensity in a country and distrust among the poor as well as ultra-poor in cross-section using World Values Survey & European Values Survey (WVS-EVS) Wave 7 (2017-2022). We supplement these findings using empirical Bayes on a panel extending back from 7th to the 4th WVS wave (1999-2004). To deal with potential endogeneity, we run 2SLS as well as weak instruments-robust conditional instrumental variable tests and find evidence showing microfinance prevalence intensity affects distrust levels among the poor and ultra-poor households. We find no association between microfinance and distrust levels in the rich in any of the tests, potentially because the rich are not exposed to microfinance.Yayın Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual study(Emerald Publishing, 2023) Özcan, Rasim; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Napari, Ayuba; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüPurpose – For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach – This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings – The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.Yayın Subsample stability, change detection and dynamics of oil and metal markets: A recursive approach(Elsevier, 2023) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Napari, Ayuba; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe analysis of historical price data for patterns and using such patterns for predictions and policy recommendations has become ubiquitous in the existing economics literature. These predictions and recommendations are premised on the stability of the statistical properties and inter-variable dynamics for which a single regime or few number of regimes can capture. This, however, is a strong assumption with serious repercussions if violated. In this study, the appropriateness of the stability assumption is questioned using various recursive regressions to test stability, consistency of stationarity and stability in inter-variable dynamics between crude oil, gold, silver, and platinum prices. Using monthly data sourced from the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) from January 1, 9960 to March 2022, our empirical analysis found level prices of oil, gold, and platinum to be consistently non-stationary with rare exceptions. The level price of silver however is found to be inconsistent with multiple regime switches while the logged series of all variables yielded non-stationarity. The default is stationarity for all the variables when price series are logged differenced and/or differenced for oil, silver, and platinum. Differenced gold prices resulted in inconsistent stationarity with multiple regime changes. Even if rare, the stationarity of all the variables is dependent on time and sample size due to the inconsistence in the stationarity verdict. On the bi-variate relationship in the long run, only level silver prices are found to be cointegrated with oil while logged silver prices are inconsistently cointegrated with logged oil prices. Also, in the short-run, only log of oil prices is found to Granger cause log of silver prices. It is thus recommended that researchers and policy makers be tempered in extrapolating statistical findings in general and the price and interprice dynamics of oil, gold, silver and platinum into the future.Yayın Public attitudes toward higher education using sentiment analysis and topic modeling(Springer Nature, 2024) Göçen, Ahmet; Ibrahim, Mahat Maalim; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis study examines higher education through data-mining methodologies, aiming to uncover key themes and sentiments in global discourse. Utilizing sentiment analysis and topic modeling, the research analyzes 157,943 tweets from 84,423 unique users over a five-month period (January to May 2023). This period was selected, coinciding with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) tools, particularly ChatGPT. The study investigates the discussions, emotional tones, and dominant topics shaping the global narrative of higher education within X (Twitter) data. Key findings include the geographical distribution of tweets and the most frequent positive and negative perceptions. It also addresses critical issues such as affordability, accessibility, and funding in higher education. Furthermore, the data shows public reactions to AI in higher education are initially negative, while higher education tweets are primarily characterized by positivity and optimism. The higher education tweets are mainly posted on the weekend, with decreased activity during weekdays. This research provides insights into the evolving higher education landscape amid rapid technological advancements.Yayın The causal relationship between public investment in renewable energy and climate change performance index(Econjournals, 2025) Vergil, Hasan; Mursal, Marwa; Kaplan, Muhittin; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüAddressing the current environmental challenges requires optimizing climate actions and understanding the complex relationships among them. This paper aims to provide insights into how public investment in renewable energy influences various dimensions of climate change, including emissions, efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and policy effectiveness. This study seeks to explore the causal connection between public investment in renewable energy and the Climate Change Performance Indicator (CPI) from 2007 to 2017, utilizing data provided by German Watch. The method used is Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger Causality. The study unveils a unidirectional causality from Renewable Energy Investment (REI) to climate change performance. Additionally, it emphasizes the critical role of energy efficiency in attracting investments in renewable energy. Surprisingly, the study finds that REI influences the quality of climate policy. Furthermore, the study identifies a bi-directional causality between a renewable energy share and REI. The contribution of the paper lies in its analysis of public investment in renewable energy, covering areas beyond just public finance for R&D in renewable energy, as also exploring the causal link between this investment and CPI. It offers policymakers insights on how financial governmental interventions can effectively drive climate action.Yayın Is the effect of a health crisis symmetric for physical and digital financial assets? An assessment of gold and bitcoin during the pandemic(Public Library of Science, 2023) Badshah, Waqar; Musah, Mohammed; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özer, Ercan; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe emergence of the covid-19 health crisis, in this advanced technological era where connections between markets, nations, and economies have grown stronger than ever before, the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic quickly had an impact on both physical and digital financial assets. The Chinese financial market experienced the first consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, then spilled over to other financial markets, including those for cryptocurrencies and the precious metals. This study examines the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the volatilities of the dynamics of bitcoin and gold. Both assets share some characteristics, such as online trading platforms, however, gold is a tangible financial asset unlike bitcoin, which is digitally generated without any physical form. This study argues that the similarities and differences between bitcoin and gold play major roles in how the covid19 crisis affected their respective dynamics. Using daily data ranging from 9/22/2014 to 1/ 31/2023 and employing ARMA as the mean equation for GARCH model, the impact of the health crisis (covid-19) is examined on the volatilities of the prices and volumes of bitcoin and gold. Empirical evidence points out that, the pandemic has a symmetric impact on the volatilities of bitcoin and gold price returns, causing them to be more volatile. The impact of the covid-19 observed on the volume returns of the assets, however, is asymmetrical. The empirical results give evidence to the role that the vital differences existing between these assets played during the covid-19 pandemic.Yayın Beyond GARCH: Intraday insights into the exchange rate and stock price volatility dynamics in Borsa Istanbul sectors(Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, 2024) Abdul-Rahman, Mutawakil; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Kaplan, Muhittin; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis study investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on sectoral stock volatility by employing the intraday volatility measure directly calculated from the original data, using daily data from 27 Borsa Istanbul sectors between April 29, 2003, and April 25, 2023. In the literature, GARCH models are commonly used to study the volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices, typically using aggregate data. However, the GARCH family models provide inefficient and biased estimates if they are misspecified. Moreover, using aggregate-level data may lead to biased and misleading conclusions. The research used intraday volatility measures to overcome the shortcomings of GARCH models. The ordinary least squares (OLS), GARCH (1,1) methods, and Garman and Klass (1980) volatility estimator are used. The empirical results showed that the estimates from each method vary significantly, and these disparities in the results might be due to misspecification in GARCH (1,1) models. The intraday volatility model estimation results showed that although stock price volatilities in all sectors are positively and significantly affected by exchange rate volatility, their magnitudes vary significantly. Taken together, this implies the presence of vast heterogeneities in the responses of sectoral stock price volatilities to exchange rate volatility. The results encourage policymakers to pay special attention to these heterogeneities to prevent capital flights and underinvestment. Additionally, the findings assist investors in making more effective decisions by helping them adapt their investment strategies to factor in exchange rate fluctuations and mitigate the impact of unexpected events in the exchange rate market.Yayın The language of sustainability: Exploring the implications of metaphors on environmental action and finance(Corvinus University of Budapest, 2023) Napari, Ayuba; Özcan, Rasim; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe relationship between humans and the environment is complex. To capture this complex relationship, metaphors/concepts have always been used. The most prominent of these metaphors/conceptions is the limits concept. This views the natural environment in terms of its carrying capacity and contend that human actions must be controlled so as not to overwhelm the environment. For overburdening the environment will result in a collapse of the natural system. The environmental optimists on the other hand discount the carrying capacity contending that human ingenuity and the market mechanism will overcome any temporary environmental problems that may arise. A tempered version of both is the political-ecological class of metaphors/conceptions which emphasize the political, cultural, and economic factors responsible for environmental decay and/or restoration. In this study, the implications of these metaphors/conceptions on environmental action and environmental finance are examined. It is concluded that, the limits conception views environmental action as a top-bottom endeavor and places governmental and multilateral organizations at the center of environmental and climate finance. The neoclassical and technological optimist concepts contend that, the current capitalist structure is well suited to tackle environmental externalities and government policy should encourage eco-innovation preferable through public-private partnerships. The tapestry and the political-ecological class of metaphors envisages a role for central authorities as well as private local individuals with crowdfunding and corporate social/environmental responsibilities along with governmental and multilateral aid and public-private partnerships being some of the main sources of funds for environmental protection and restoration.
