Khan

İktisat Bölümü, başta Türkiye ve çevre ülkeler olmak üzere küresel ekonomileri anlayan, var olan sorunları analiz ederken, iktisadi kuramları ve kavramları yetkin ve özgün bir şekilde kullanma becerisine sahip bireyler yetiştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır.

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Khan

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Solunum Sistemi, Genel ve Dahili Tıp, Çevre Bilimleri ve Ekoloji, İş Ekonomisi, Bilim ve Teknoloji

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Listeleniyor 1 - 10 / 22

Effect of monetary policy on the Nigerian stock market: A smooth transition autoregressive approach
(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2021) Babangida, Jamilu S.; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
This paper examines the nonlinear effect of monetary policy decisions on the performance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange market, by employing the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model on monthly data from 2013 M4 to 2019 M12 for All Share Index and monetary policy instrument. This study considers the two regimes characterizing the stock market, which are the lower regime (the bear market) and the upper regime (the bull market). The results show evidence of nonlinear effect of monetary policy on the stock exchange market. Monetary policy rate, money supply, lagged monetary policy rate and lagged treasury bill rate are found to have significant positive effects on the stock exchange market in the lower regime while current treasury bill rate shows a negative effect. In the upper regime, money supply and lagged treasury bill rate have significant negative effect on the stock market. The current treasury bill rate is found to have a positive effect on the stock exchange market. It is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should maintain a stable money supply growth that is consistent with increased activities in the Nigerian stock market.
Asymmetric effects of economic growth, fossil fuel consumption, and financial development on carbon emissions in Ghana
(Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, 2024) Abdul Rahman, Mutawakil; Iftikhar, Sundas; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
This research analyzes the impact of economic expansion, non-renewable energy consumption (NonREC), financial sector improvement, and carbon releases in Ghana. The study used yearly data from 1971 to 2014 and applied the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method to examine the data. The NARDL approach facilitated the differentiation of variables into favorable and unfavorable adjustments by examining the short-and long-run effects. The results indicated that all the independent variables exhibited short-term asymmetries, while economic growth presented long-term asymmetry. Negative adjustments in economic expansion led to a decline in carbon releases in the long run but an increase in the short run. favorable and unfavorable adjustments in NonREC positively and negatively impact carbon releases in both the short and long term. Additionally, negative adjustments in financial development positively affected carbon releases in the long run. The cumulative dynamic multipliers graphs and impulse response function graphs illustrate the same impact pattern of the independent variables on carbon releases, confirming the findings' robustness. The study suggests implementing environmental policies in Ghana that promote renewable sources of energy and energy-conserving innovations to reduce environmental degradation. The findings recommend that the decision-maker prioritize effective environmental strategies like a green economy, renewable energy use, and energy-saving technologies. By adopting clean energy and implementing advanced technologies, sustainable economic growth can be achieved while preserving the environment and the ecosystem.
Stock market tumble sparks crypto chaos: A crash risk spillover analysis
(Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2024) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özcan, Rasim; Abdul Rahman, Mutawakil; Waheed, Abdul; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
The study employs an empirical Bayesian estimation approach to examine how the crash risk of the G-7 (United States [US], United Kingdom [UK], Japan, Germany, Canada, and France excluding Italy) and Chinese equity markets affects the crash risk of the top 11 cryptocurrencies. Two crash risk measures were adopted to determine the monthly crash risk of the two types of markets, which are the most appropriate for skewed returns. Four separate models were estimated using the empirical Bayes estimation method because it considers heterogeneity, is more efficient than least squares, and facilitates more accurate coefficient estimation. The results reveal that the German stock market's crash risks are significantly and contemporaneously associated with the crash risk of all 11 cryptocurrencies, indicating that the German equity market is not a reliable diversifier for cryptocurrencies. The crash risks of the US, UK, and Japanese (German and Canadian) equity markets have a positive (negative) impact on the crash risk of cryptocurrency markets with a one-month lag. Generally, lagged crash risks have a more substantial influence on cryptocurrency crash risk, suggesting that historical crashes in equity markets are better predictors of cryptocurrency crashes. The one-month significant delay effect may present arbitrage opportunities because the risk of crashes in stock markets may signal potential crashes in cryptocurrencies one month in advance. A series of robustness checks confirmed the results of the analysis and the validity of our conclusions. These findings suggest that crypto investors and policy-makers should pay attention to historical events in equity markets. Investors and portfolio managers in the cryptocurrency market should monitor unexpected fluctuations in the stock market, particularly significant declines that could result in significant losses in the future.
Whether the crypto market is efficient? Evidence from testing the validity of the efficient market hypothesis
(Bank Indonesia Institute, 2024) Iftikhar, Sundas; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özcan, Rasim; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
This study examines the validity of the efficient market hypothesis for the cryptocurrency market. We use the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic approach to examine the presence of different calendar anomalies i.e., the Halloween effect, the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect, and the month-of-the-year effect in the case of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Tether, and USD Coin. The findings show that there is no strong evidence of the Halloween effect. We find only robust Thursday and Saturday effects in the mean equation. In the case of the month-of-the-year effect, there is only a reverse January effect. More specifically, we note that April and February are statistically significant in the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum, respectively. Results obtained from the variance equations imply that September and October are the least risky months for investors.
Till debt does us apart: Cross-country evidence on the relationship between microfinance prevalence and social distrust
(Public Library Science, 2023) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özcan, Rasim; Masood, Syed Muhammad Usman; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
Economic interventions have social consequences. In this paper, we explore one such relationship, between microfinance intensity and social distrust levels reported by the low-income people. We find a significant association between microfinance intensity in a country and distrust among the poor as well as ultra-poor in cross-section using World Values Survey & European Values Survey (WVS-EVS) Wave 7 (2017-2022). We supplement these findings using empirical Bayes on a panel extending back from 7th to the 4th WVS wave (1999-2004). To deal with potential endogeneity, we run 2SLS as well as weak instruments-robust conditional instrumental variable tests and find evidence showing microfinance prevalence intensity affects distrust levels among the poor and ultra-poor households. We find no association between microfinance and distrust levels in the rich in any of the tests, potentially because the rich are not exposed to microfinance.
Education expenditure and economic growth nexus: Evidence from the MINT
(İbn Haldun Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2022) Odeyemi, Adebayo Abdulateef; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul Islam
The MINT - Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - are from the countries projected to attain a significant level of economic success in the years to come. As a result of the demographic and geographic characteristics of these countries, they have the potential to push their economies to a globally competitive standard that is suitable for rapid economic development and advancement. From the prerequisites for the actualisation of such standard is the improvement in the quality of labour and deliberate investment in human capital through education. This study examines the viability of such prospects for the MINT by investigating education expenditure and economic growth relationship in the MINT. Through the use of a panel data set ranging from the year 1994 to the year 2020, the study utilises panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) methods to examine the impact of education expenditure on growth in the MINT, and the finding from the study shows that there is a long-run relationship between education expenditure and economic growth. Expenditure on education positively affects economic growth in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. More specifically, according to findings in this study, it is observed that a unit increase in the percentage of education expenditure will result in a 3 - 4 per cent increase in economic growth in the MINT. Labour also significantly impacts economic growth in the MINT. The results for the countries imply that expenditure on education and human capital should be encouraged, as evidence from this study conforms to findings from the literature.
Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual study
(Emerald Publishing, 2023) Özcan, Rasim; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Napari, Ayuba; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
Purpose – For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach – This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings – The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.
Threat of intervention in cryptocurrency market: West side story of Bitcoin and Ripple
(Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 2023) Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Isac, Nicoleta; Drammeh, Ousman; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özcan, Rasim; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
This study examines the impact of intervention threats on the price and volume volatility of Bitcoin and XRP. Using the Threshold or GJR-GARCH model, we analyse the relationship between news shocks (representing intervention threats) and the volatilities of Bitcoin and XRP price and volume returns, based on data from January 2014 to April 2021. The results indicate a significant association between news shocks and Bitcoin's price volatility, suggesting that intervention-related news events have a notable impact. However, the relationship between news shocks and XRP's price volatility is insignificant. Notably, XRP's volume returns demonstrate a positive and significant relationship with news shocks, while Bitcoin's volume returns do not exhibit a significant relationship. Additionally, past shocks and conditional variance shocks significantly contribute to the volatility of today's price or volume returns. These findings suggest that Ripple (XRP) may benefit from the implicit threat of intervention, strategically managing its availability to control price surges.
The triple impact of innovation, financial inclusion, and renewable energy consumption on environmental quality in some emerging economies
(Econjournals, 2024) Kaplan, Muhittin; Abdul Rahman, Mohammed Muntaka; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Vergil, Hasan; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
This paper investigates the triple impact of innovation, financial inclusion, and renewable energy consumption on the quality of environment. The study employed data between 2007 and 2019 from selected emerging economies. Using the fixed effect two-step GMM econometric method. The result found that financial inclusion and innovation have a positive relationship with carbon emissions, hence, contributing to the reduction in the quality of the environment. Renewable energy consumption was found to reduce carbon emissions. Similarly, the interactive terms TPT*FIN, FIN*REN, and TPT*REN were all negatively related to carbon emissions. The study recommends that governments should increase financial instruments to support innovation that will enhance environmental quality. Additionally, governments should strengthen their environmental policies. Financial institutions should encourage firms to access green finance solutions. The value and originality of this study is the introduction of the interactive term which throws more light on variables that affect the environment and through which channel. Moreso, there are few works with these interactive terms relative to emerging economies. Third, there are no previous studies that employed the fixed effect two-step GMM to analyze the impact of financial inclusion, technological innovation, and renewable energy consumption on environmental quality.
Subsample stability, change detection and dynamics of oil and metal markets: A recursive approach
(Elsevier, 2023) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Napari, Ayuba; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü
The analysis of historical price data for patterns and using such patterns for predictions and policy recommendations has become ubiquitous in the existing economics literature. These predictions and recommendations are premised on the stability of the statistical properties and inter-variable dynamics for which a single regime or few number of regimes can capture. This, however, is a strong assumption with serious repercussions if violated. In this study, the appropriateness of the stability assumption is questioned using various recursive regressions to test stability, consistency of stationarity and stability in inter-variable dynamics between crude oil, gold, silver, and platinum prices. Using monthly data sourced from the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) from January 1, 9960 to March 2022, our empirical analysis found level prices of oil, gold, and platinum to be consistently non-stationary with rare exceptions. The level price of silver however is found to be inconsistent with multiple regime switches while the logged series of all variables yielded non-stationarity. The default is stationarity for all the variables when price series are logged differenced and/or differenced for oil, silver, and platinum. Differenced gold prices resulted in inconsistent stationarity with multiple regime changes. Even if rare, the stationarity of all the variables is dependent on time and sample size due to the inconsistence in the stationarity verdict. On the bi-variate relationship in the long run, only level silver prices are found to be cointegrated with oil while logged silver prices are inconsistently cointegrated with logged oil prices. Also, in the short-run, only log of oil prices is found to Granger cause log of silver prices. It is thus recommended that researchers and policy makers be tempered in extrapolating statistical findings in general and the price and interprice dynamics of oil, gold, silver and platinum into the future.

Khan, Asad ul Islam

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